Cyclical unemployment is read from capacity utilisation and order books rather than from the queue at the job centre

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How a shortfall in aggregate demand turns into layoffs: orders drop in spring and headcount falls by autumn Rotating panels: the same households answer unemployment questions for four months then drop out Reference week: the seven days you were asked about decide whether you count as unemployed How many weekly hours make someone part-time rather than underemployed is a definitional fight Why unemployment rates across countries need harmonization before anyone can compare them Where the line between part-time employed and unemployed actually falls Discouraged workers who stop looking after a year drop out of the unemployment count entirely The one-hour rule: working a single hour in the reference week still counts as employed Why rate hikes hit construction and durable goods employment before they touch anything else Keynesian cyclical unemployment in one line: demand collapses and firms cut hours before they cut people