Horizon scanning reads weak signals at the edge: patents and doctoral theses and niche forums

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Backcasting starts from a desired 2040 and asks which steps had to happen for it to be reachable Pierre Wack's Shell scenarios let the company move early when OPEC shocked the oil price in 1973 Peter Schwartz's The Art of the Long View moved scenario planning from military planning into the boardroom Singapore's Centre for Strategic Futures exists because a small state cannot afford surprise Prediction markets price a future event and then quietly settle who was right The planning fallacy survives because we plan from the inside view and never from similar past projects Scenario planning does not predict the future: it rehearses several futures so a decision survives any of them The official future is a company's unexamined assumption that next year looks like this year A sagacious remark is one that turns out to be true years later and the delay is part of the definition Tetlock's twenty-year study found famous pundits score worse than simple extrapolation