Prediction markets outperform pundits until herding kicks in and everyone echoes everyone

Popularity Index: 6 Updated at 2026-10-10 01:27 UTC

Sites

Related Topics

Open-source volunteers built the internet's infrastructure for free and the incentive question still has no clean answer A subreddit turned into a flash mob of capital during the GameStop squeeze Wikipedia runs on millions of volunteer editors and no editor-in-chief yet beats most encyclopedias Is a corporate open-source contribution a donated asset or a recruitment ad Stack Overflow accumulated two decades of answers and a chatbot emptied the queue in two years Galton's ox: 787 fairgoers averaged closer to the true weight than any single expert in 1907 Wisdom of crowds works until the crowd starts reading itself — independence is the fragile ingredient A committee beats its smartest member only if members commit to independent guesses first The diversity trumps ability theorem: a crowd of moderate solvers can beat a room of experts

Hot Categories

Featured Categories