Chance and luck

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The difference between a risk you can price and luck you cannot Seneca said luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity: is that really how it works? Can you separate skill from luck in a single outcome like a promotion? How much of a good career is skill and how much is pure chance? Nassim Taleb's point that luck hides in the tail of the distribution A coin flip is chance: a promotion you did nothing to earn is luck Is luck just probability that nobody has bothered to measure yet? Why the same lucky break helps one person and wrecks another Why poker players talk about variance more honestly than most professionals do How insurance works as a pooled bet that somebody else will be unlucky Can a company call a lucky quarter strategy and get away with it?

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