Mental models

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Cognitive Maps Schemas Mental Simulation

First principles thinking: stripping a problem down to physics Second-order thinking: and then what happens? All models are wrong but some are useful: what that means at work Teaching a mental model to someone new on the team Munger's latticework of models and where it breaks down Chesterton's fence: do not remove what you do not yet understand Why a working mental model stops working when conditions shift Bayesian updating in ordinary life: changing my mind on new evidence Map is not the territory: stale models behind supply chain failures Inversion: asking what would guarantee failure Circle of competence: knowing the edge of what you understand Occam's razor against Hickam's dictum in diagnosis

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